Jorgen Randers is an optimist. When I met him in Washington DC in March at a Limits to Growth symposium hosted by the Smithsonian and the Club of Rome, I found him to be a delightful, cheerful man. Yet he has given up on humankind. The biggest take-away from his new book, the latest decadal Limits to Growth update, is that short-term thinking will continue to trump the long-term welfare of the planet, and of the future generations who will depend on it.
But 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years is far from a depressing doomsday read. In fact, based on my own worldview, informed by a decade of researching and monitoring our modern culture’s obsession with growth, Randers paints a far rosier picture of our future than I’m afraid we’ll see.
I’m glad Richard chose to write about “decoupling.” We cling so tenaciously to our dogma of everlasting growth that we dream up fairy tales to explain how we can overcome physical limits. One common tale is the idea that economic growth can occur without increasing extraction of natural resources and emission of waste. This notion is called decoupling: economic growth is decoupled from growth in natural resource consumption. Some degree of decoupling has been occurring as our economy emphasizes services over manufacturing, and as we increase efficiency. It’s been happening at a very slow rate, however.
